Las Vegas Housing Market Trends: Fall 2024

September-October 2024 Las Vegas Real Estate Market Overview

At the time of year when many housing markets are tucked in for fall and winter hibernation, the Las Vegas real estate market is experiencing record growth and non-stop activity, plus increases in employment and in the visitor volume that keeps the region’s employment hubs humming.

In addition, ongoing infrastructure improvements like high-speed rail and renovations at some of the area’s most iconic properties promise to create even more opportunities in both tourism and housing.

Often, increased inventory availability leads to lower prices, but this Fall, the Las Vegas housing market saw record-high home values during September and October.

Las Vegas Residential Real Estate Stats

For months we’ve been saying that the sweet spot for purchase potential was in condos and townhomes because they offer great locations and better affordability. Now, it looks like the market is catching up to that reality.

Median home price and price changes since last year: In September, the median price of existing single-family homes in Las Vegas was $479,900, up 6.6 percent from the previous year and just shy of the all-time record high set in May 2022. September condos and townhomes clocked in at a record-setting $299,500, up a whopping 10.9 percent year over year and surpassing July’s previous high of $296,000.

October’s numbers were a mixed bag, with single-family homes down slightly to a median price of $475,531, still up 5.9 percent year over year. Condo and townhomes saw another big jump in median sales price to a new high of $315,000, up 14.3 percent year over year.

Monthly sales volume: Single-family home closings at 1791 were down in September, both month over month (-16.2 percent) and year over year (-1.6 percent). However, they bounced back in October at 1918 units, which is up significantly both month over month at 7.1 percent and year over year at 12.9 percent.

Las Vegas condos and townhomes experienced a similar trend, with September closing volume at 486 units, down 15.2 percent on the month and 12.1 percent on the year. This was followed by an October recovery with 540 units closed, up 11.1 percent on the month and 13.9 percent over the prior year.

Average days on market: In September, 61.5 percent of single-family homes and 59.5 percent of condos and townhomes sold within 30 days of hitting the market. That’s down both month over month and year over year. In October, the trend continued, with 58.9 percent of single-family homes and 59.4 percent of condos and townhomes selling within 30 days, down from 67.2 percent and 66.2 percent respectively year over year.

Inventory levels: Inventory saw significant improvements year over year in both September and October. September single-family homes were up 36.5 percent from 2023 at three months of effective availability, while condos and townhomes were up an unbelievable 90.3 percent year over year at 3.6 months.

October’s single-family homes inventory held steady at three months, up 21.6 percent on the year. Condos and townhomes were, again, slightly higher at 3.3 months, up 32.1 percent on the year.

Infrastructure Developments and Major Construction Projects

The following image as provided by Las Vegas REALTORS® outlines major projects currently under construction or planned for the South Nevada area.

Impact Analysis of Construction and Infrastructure Improvements

Upcoming improvements in mass transit like the $3 billion Brightline High Speed Rail Line (projected for completion in 2027); road projects including two I-15 improvements and the proposed Henderson Interchange project; planned movie studios, including both Summerlin and Nevada Studios campuses; and the upcoming $10 billion Oak View Group Arena and Hotel-Casino speak to the growth in Las Vegas for residents and tourists alike.

Add to that the $600 million Las Vegas Convention Center renovation, scheduled for completion in 2025 and poised to bring in even more events and visitors to the city. Aside from their importance to residents’ quality of life, these investments also suggest ongoing strength in the job market and continuing demand for homes, supporting home prices.

Upcoming large-scale residential projects include Four Seasons Private Residences at MacDonald Highlands along with the Desert Pines Mixed-Use Development, slated to create 1800 units of attainable housing on the 100-acre Desert Pines golf course site. These projects should increase inventory at both ends of the affordability scale.

Fall 2024 Las Vegas Demographic and Economic Trends

The following image indicates the Key Indicators for healthy economic growth for Las Vegas:

Population Growth and Demographics

According to the Fall 2024 economic report put out by Las Vegas Realtors (LVR), the current Clark County population saw a 1.7 percent increase year over year to 2.4 million. At the same time, the number of visitors was up nearly a million during the year to 41.7 million. That combination pushed the region’s GDP to a new high of $136 billion.

While employment increased slightly during the year, at a 0.4 percent rise it wasn’t enough to keep up with the number of new residents. This, combined with a drop in median household income of 2.2 percent, could indicate increasing affordability challenges in the years ahead, especially if median home prices continue to climb at their current levels.

Where People are Moving From

People are moving to Las Vegas in droves, and this is where many of them are coming from:

The preponderance of new residents to Las Vegas over the previous year came from California at 36.9 percent. The primary drivers of this exodus are almost certainly the Las Vegas market’s relatively affordable cost of living and real estate and the lack of a state income tax in Nevada. Hawaii and New York, which rank just behind California in having the most expensive state income tax burden, are also on the list at numbers 7 and 10 respectively.

Also on the list, there are a significant number of newcomers from other state-tax havens, including Florida, Texas and Washington state at numbers 2, 3, and 4 respectively.

Case Study: Population Growth in Zip Code 89086

In determining trends for new residents moving to Las Vegas, it is, perhaps, instructive to look at the county that has experienced the greatest growth over the past decade and a half.

The area’s 89086 ZIP Code comprises an area in Northeast Las Vegas with a population of 10,735, up 57.2 percent during the years 2010 to 2023. The median household income in the area is $64,609, a hair under the median household income for the region at $66,356.

The median age in 89086 is 31 and the average household size is 2.7. The average home here was built in 2019, is 1748 square feet and costs $405,634. Effective months of inventory sit at 2.3 months and the average days on market for home sales are 51.

As the fastest-growing ZIP Code in the area, with newer homes that are priced just under the region’s median, 89086 provides an interesting snapshot of the types of households that may be flocking to the Las Vegas metropolitan area: young families looking for space and affordability in an area with newer housing stock which may, potentially, allow them to save money on updates, repairs and improvements.

Luxury Case Study: Market Trends for Zip Code 89135

On the high end of the real estate market in Las Vegas we have Zip Code 89135, located on the Western edge of the metropolitan area and boasting the area’s highest average home price at $1,199,211. The average home here was built in 2009 and has 2574 square feet.

The population in 89135 has increased a modest 4.5 percent during the years 2010 to 2023. Median household income for residents of the area is $107,552, the fourth highest in the market area. Median age here is 47.7 and the average home size is 2.2.

Demographics here suggest that this area includes older families and empty nesters as well as retirees. Here too, the relatively recent average date of construction suggests that newer homes are in greater demand, as buyers choose to pay more to have all of the improvements and updates done for them prior to purchase.

The Picture for Las Vegas Real Estate Investors

We’ve seen an ongoing reduction in the number of cash buyers and this trend continued in the most recent numbers, with cash purchases accounting for 24.4 percent of September transactions and 23.3 percent of October transactions.

With higher interest rates and fewer cash buyers, affordability may become a bigger problem than it has been in the past, especially for entry-level home options. Fewer cash buyers also suggests a weakening in the number of investors in the area, creating the potential for higher rental rates down the road should rental inventory levels fail to keep up with demand.

Real estate investors looking for a bargain have been disappointed throughout September and October as the number of “distressed” sales remains near historic lows. According to Las Vegas Realtors, short sales and foreclosures combined added up to only 0.8 percent of all existing local sales in September, down from 1.3 percent a year ago. In October, they totaled 0.9 percent of all existing local property sales, compared to 1.4 percent the year previous.

Predictions for the rest of 2024 and into 2025

Impact of Interest Rate Cuts: Long-anticipated interest rate cuts may have little impact on the housing market during the rest of 2024. In addition, the election of Donald Trump to a second term, with proposed tariffs and other inflation-fueling economic proposals, may mean no more rate cuts are on the horizon for 2025, further exacerbating affordability concerns.

Increase in Inventory: While modest inventory increases have occurred in the Las Vegas market over the past few months, it will take significant levels of new construction to bring inventory in line with current demand. Flat and declining levels of building permits issued for residential housing stock over the past two years suggest that this level of new construction will not appear in the short term.

Lock-In Effect: While demand is anticipated to increase in the months to come, finding the right home may be tougher if interest rates don’t fall much further in 2025. The so-called “lock-in effect” occurs when homeowners who bought during the pandemic era, and who enjoy the historically low rates of that time period, are reluctant to trade in those low rates and make a move to a new home. This has put a damper on move-up buyers and may continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Silver Tsunami: To top it all off, the much-anticipated “Silver Tsunami,” where retiring seniors were expected, as in past generations, to sell their large family homes and downsize into retirement communities with smaller homes or condos, has failed to materialize. In fact, the tendency for seniors to age in place means that in many markets, older empty-nesters own twice as many large homes as families with children do. With no financial incentive to sell and move, inventory shortages — and attendant high home prices — in this sector are projected to continue.

Smart Buyers Will Come Out Ahead: Those homebuyers who are willing to purchase a fixer-upper may have a better chance of finding the right home in the right neighborhood and making it work. In addition, the greater your flexibility and willingness to adapt your wishlist to market conditions, the better your chances of finding a home you can afford, even as the Las Vegas real estate landscape heats up.

Let us help you navigate the Las Vegas real estate market

Whether you’re a buyer who needs to develop a strategy for the current market, a seller who’s ready to make a change in 2025, or a seller looking to tap into your increasing equity to move up, you’ll need guidance from Las Vegas’ favorite real estate agent. Leslie Hoke has been delighting Las Vegas buyers and sellers since 2004. Dozens of happy clients have benefited from her expert knowledge and attention to detail.

Get in touch today to find out what we can do to make your real estate goals a reality. Feel free to call: (702) 321-1763